Beware the “I know, I know” syndrome from an enthusiastic employee. The event occurs when the employee remembers a similar incident with a returned part, production line failure, or software issue. Unfortunately, reasoning from effects to causes is actually a logical fallacy called “affirming the consequent.”
We cannot assume that a given effect has but one cause. Hence, when we have an untoward incident in our business, we need to be aware of our assumptions as we confront the problem–something more easily stated than accomplished. When we test, we always need to take some extra steps to try and very the specific cause for the effect we are seeing and avoid the logical fallacy.
We can apply the same thinking to good things that occur as well. Often, we don’t really understand what is causing the salubrious effect we are seeing. Even worse, we may be seeing the effect of a relatively random cause but still assign the cause to something that provides a comfortable explanation.
Always go the extra step with both the good and the bad and be cognizant of assumption, some of which may be subconscious.Tags: assumption, business, testing